Modules Return to Inventory Buildup Cycle, Increase in Blockage of Glass Furnace Outlets [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM News on June 19:

Solar Cell

Prices

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (with efficiency of 23.2% and above) is 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Domestic demand is minimal, with a high proportion of export demand. Some producers are integrating production line resources and starting or stopping production based on orders.

The mainstream quotation for Topcon183N solar cells (with efficiency of 25% and above) is 0.23-0.24 yuan/W; the mainstream transaction price for Topcon210RN is 0.265 yuan/W, with a quotation range of 0.265-0.27 yuan/W; the price for Topcon210N solar cells is around 0.255-0.26 yuan/W. Among them, the prices of 210N/210RN are showing a downward trend due to supply-demand balance pressures; 183N prices are temporarily stable, with some producers already implementing production cuts to control supply. The key to subsequent mainstream price changes lies in the wafer price trend.

The mainstream quotation for HJT 30% silver-coated copper (with efficiency of 25% and above) is 0.35-0.36 yuan/W. Prices have increased due to market demand fluctuations and cost control. HJT has relatively few direct sales, with integrated producers being self-sufficient.

Production

Global production schedule for June is 57-58 GW, down 4-5% MoM. Solar cell supply continues to tighten due to weak demand, but the tightening is less than expected. Currently, there are further production cuts for 183N, and actual output in June will be adjusted downward.

Inventory

There are also differences in inventory levels among different sizes for export producers. 183 continues to experience inventory buildup, while the situation for 210r is optimistic, with overall inventory slightly increasing. It is expected that the situation will improve next week.

Module

Prices

The current price spread in the module market has widened. The mainstream transaction prices for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects are 0.653-0.662 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules are 0.668-0.677 yuan/W, with the average price decreasing by 0.03 yuan/W. The price for TOPCon distributed 182mm modules is 0.679-0.696 yuan/W, and for distributed 210mm modules is 0.684-0.701 yuan/W. All prices include freight.

Production

Domestic distributed orders have decreased, and there is no increase in centralized projects. Module production will continue to be cut from June to July.

Inventory

Modules have re-entered the inventory buildup cycle, with 182&183 modules experiencing inventory buildup. However, demand for 210N modules has recently improved, and destocking has begun.

PV Film

Prices:

PV-grade EVA/POE:

The current price of PV-grade EVA is 9,500-9,750 yuan/mt. PV-grade POE was traded at 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt.

PV film:

Currently, the mainstream prices for transparent EVA film with a weight of 420g are 5.17-5.25 yuan/m², while white EVA film with the same weight is priced at 5.67-5.75 yuan/m². EPE film with a weight of 380g is priced at 5.28-5.32 yuan/m², and POE film with the same weight is priced at 6.69-6.84 yuan/m².

Production

In June, the production schedule for PV-grade EVA decreased by 2.70% MoM, and the production schedule for PV film decreased by 3.1% MoM.

Inventory

Currently, film enterprises are purchasing based on immediate needs, with demand showing a weakening trend. Petrochemical plants are gradually experiencing inventory buildup.

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 18.5-19.5 yuan/m², with glass enterprises lowering their quotes this week.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 19.5-20.5 yuan/m², with glass enterprises lowering their quotes this week.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 11.2-11.6 yuan/m², with glass enterprises lowering their quotes this week.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 12.2-12.6 yuan/m², with glass enterprises lowering their quotes this week.

Production

Recently, some glass enterprises have begun to reduce production by blocking furnace openings. The current capacity involved is close to 2,000 mt/day, and supply has started to decrease.

Inventory

Glass inventory levels remain stable. Recently, some module enterprises have begun to purchase, and glass order taking has recovered somewhat WoW.